Time to be very careful

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Replied by hanna on topic Re: Time to be very careful

I think the problem is that investors lost trust in the entire system. From extremely bullish to a total meltdown in days. That smells funny to me as well.


If I was in their shoes, I'd also lose trust in the system. I'd think something fishy's going on if the change occur almost without warning. If something's going to turn bad or good, we gotta see some warning signs or a trend before seeing the effect, right?
14 years 5 months ago #46
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Replied by Finance Globe on topic Re: Time to be very careful

Down, down, down. When does it stop? 1001 on the S&P 500 is starting to seem real. That's about another 2% down from the current opening level. We may see even more than that, but we are in an official correction area, and getting closer to a bear market once again.

Buying opportunity? It could be, but the truth is that most stocks and indexes have lost their 200 daily moving average and trendline support. Not good signs. 1044 on the S&P is the next critical support level. This number is different by a few points than what you see on CNBC and our homepage. So around 1048 on that number.

Be careful!
14 years 5 months ago #47
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Replied by Finance Globe on topic Re: Time to be very careful

Hi Julienne,

I'm a programmer myself, and I can tell you that computer programs are only as smart as the programmer that wrote the code. There are certainly flaws in the system, a system that many investors are loosing faith in.

Computer programs use analytical data that they compute and execute steps based on that data. They lack the human gift of common sense and detailed knowledge of decision making. Yes, this was a situation that ran out of control, but I don't think that computers are to blame for all of it. I'm fairly confident that traders panicked when we broke our upper trend-line support level on the markets and caused a trigger of a massive wave of selling, a big domino effect. Look up "protective stop" for more information on that.

I really hope that new laws come out from this, and people learn from this in a big way.
14 years 6 months ago #48
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Replied by julienne on topic Re: Time to be very careful

What happened just proves that if there's not a lot of human interaction with the system, there will always be a time that it can get away -- out of control. I think that's one thing that can be expected with automation. Or is it?
14 years 6 months ago #49
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Replied by Finance Globe on topic Re: Time to be very careful

It depends on your risk tolerance. Some people are wondering if this is a buying opportunity, and some are hoping that we can rally to give them a chance to sell, while others are out right selling no matter what the price is.

I think the problem is that investors lost trust in the entire system. From extremely bullish to a total meltdown in days. That smells funny to me as well.

Really, I believe that cash is the only thing to hold right now, at least until we can find evidence of a support level in the markets. I'm not seeing that now. These are dangerous times to put money to work. Sure there are buy signals for certain stocks, but those signals seem to be changing constantly. Volatility creates panic. Look at WYNN, it beat earnings huge Friday, but was still down nearly 5%.

The dust will settle sooner or later, but until that happens, I am not building a portfolio unless I get a chance to buy at extreme levels and use a stop loss. It feels like a casino, not true investment. That spells danger.
Last edit: 7 years 4 weeks ago by Finance Globe. Reason: Removed Outdated Link
14 years 6 months ago #50
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Replied by hanna on topic Re: Time to be very careful

Today the DOW was down 999 points. This could mark a turn of the markets in a big way. Even if it was an error, things like this will loose confidence for investors of all kinds!



Should investors panic or bail out? I'm wondering what the effect would be to investors' money because of what happened.
14 years 6 months ago #51
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Replied by Finance Globe on topic Re: Time to be very careful

Today the DOW was down 999 points. This could mark a turn of the markets in a big way. Even if it was an error, things like this will loose confidence for investors of all kinds!
:white-flag:
14 years 6 months ago #52
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Replied by Finance Globe on topic Re: Time to be very careful

Investors are always exposed to risk, managing it is key.
14 years 6 months ago #53
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Replied by hanna on topic Re: Time to be very careful

According to Howard Gold, "conflicts of interests are business as usual on Wall Street and have been for years." So, are investors set up to fail if this is really the case? I'm not sure what to believe from the news. It's frustrating and a wee bit scary to be putting money on some things and later realizing that they were worthless assets.
14 years 6 months ago #54
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Replied by Finance Globe on topic Re: Time to be very careful

Yes be fearful.

Once again, the market is back to overbought, reiterating all of the above posts.
14 years 7 months ago #55
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Replied by belle on topic Re: Time to be very careful

So Warren Buffett's famous quotation doesn't apply during this time?

"...be fearful when others are greedy; be greedy only when others are fearful."
14 years 7 months ago #56
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Replied by Finance Globe on topic Re: Time to be very careful

It does appear that we have panic selling today. Goldman Sachs is down nearly 13%, Google down over 6%. These are some of the big leaders, those are the ones to give us hints about the rest of the market.

Careful, careful!
14 years 7 months ago #57
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Replied by Finance Globe on topic Re: Time to be very careful

Investing in this market is riskier than most people imagine. The ups have been really nice over the past year, and the common investor has missed it, thinking it was to easy to make money. Now, you are having them coming back in, which in my opinion is very very late. There may be more room to the upside, but there is the risk of a double dip recession, and a rally of 60% or so that has already been missed. I think that all depends on inflation cycles... And I am not saying to not invest, but just be wary of signs and overbought conditions. There's nothing worse than investing at peaks, or being a bagholder! I also recommend to learn about using protective stops to limit downside risk.

It is like educated gambling for most people. Trading on the other hand is like card counting in poker. Your odds are much higher if you know how to read charts, or just stick with ETF's

Wanderer, I do like the miners like HMY and industrial companies like CAT. I think construction will benefit from the stimulus program.

Look at financial's today, everyone was screaming how undervalued they are just the other day. Nearly all the big names are down 5% just today like Citi, Bank of America, JP Morgan, etc... That story isn't lining up for me. In my opinion, stay away from the risk in a bad economy. Fundamentals 101...

I'm not an expert by any means, but I do know a little about the technical perspectives of the markets. And they are saying be very careful. I don't know if now is the time to liquidate long term investments, probably not, but it is also probably not time not to be a new investor, or to build a new portfolio with fresh capital.

Mike
14 years 7 months ago #58
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Replied by Wanderer on topic Re: Time to be very careful

FG - mining is the ticket if you can ride the ups and downs (risky)... I hold a company that owns utilities, railroads, mines, cement plants, construction companies (road/utilities) and the like with electric generation and so on. They split three for one so I sold them (made a killing) :dollar: and I went back when they were a low priced stock and bought them back. They are going great guns... food for thought and as always "...CAUTION..." timing is everything. :moneybag:

Considering precious metals (always dangerous as an investment - very volatile) because there are six mining companies drilling, boring and exploring northern Minnesota for metals such as: gold, silver, paladium, copper, nickel and other non-ferrious metals (they have found all of these non-ferrous metals in northern Minnesota).

In today's world mining companies are able to extract the metals from rock that in the past the technology didn't allow for it. The northeastern (arrowhead) part of northern Minnesota is mineral rich when using new technologies.

Looking at the geological formation of the earth and the State of Minnesota, there is a lighting bolt that contains many minerals and the oldest mountain range in the world is said to be the northshore of Minnesota (eroded due to time) facing Lake Superior. Lots of geological activities and minerals trapped therein. :cheesing:

As a note, I view investing like going to the casino (set aside a fixed amount of money that I can afford to loose) and if I make some money great and if I lose some well life goes on but, the bills are still paid. It is not for everyone and if you use professional advisors/stockbrokers and load mutual funds expect to see your net earnings decrease as there are expenses with their services. I do my own investing and I take the risks and I make the money (made money since I do it myself). Food for thought..."
14 years 7 months ago #59
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Replied by Finance Globe on topic Re: Time to be very careful

No problem Meya.

The trend is still probably up, however selling can be seen as good when the market is so overbought like it is now, and it should be welcomed to longer term investors (it's like a rubber band, you can only stretch it so far before it comes back). However, bears have gotten beat up so badly over the last 14 months, they're likely to choke during any sell off, and drive prices back up. I would still be a student and watch during this time, until things go from overbought to near oversold at least.

Mike
14 years 7 months ago #60